On June 16, 2022, in Sana’a, Yemen, military personnel carry their weapons during a funeral for Houthi militants at Al-Shaab mosque. Islamic Hamoud/Getty Images
Last month, OPEC+ members decided to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day. This made Washington very angry. Leading Democrats were angry and said that Saudi Arabia wanted higher oil prices to weaken US-led sanctions against Russian fossil resources and to help Republicans by raising the price of gasoline before the November elections.
The Saudis argued that the output cut just represented an effort to stop future oil price drops and rejected any desire to increase Vladimir Putin’s war fund or ruin the chances of the Democrats winning the next election.
As it turned out, Democrats performed better than predicted in the election on November 8. But Congress should still move to reevaluate US-Saudi cooperation because of what Saudi Arabia has done.
Pressure to stop Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the terrible war in Yemen, which has lasted for more than seven years and claimed nearly 400,000 lives, is particularly crucial. Since the UN-brokered ceasefire ended recently, Saudi Arabia, which conducts airstrikes with US help, may decide to start them up again.
Even though Democrats have been very vocal about wanting to punish Saudi Arabia, it’s unlikely that any legislation will be passed through the normal channels, whether it’s by pulling US troops out of the country, stopping the sale of weapons, or passing the “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act of 2021.” A War Powers Resolution, on the other hand, would be more important and require Congress to act quickly. It would try to stop the US from giving Saudi Arabia military help in Yemen, which goes against the Constitution. If the objective is to hold Saudi Arabia accountable, this is the best course of action. A War Powers Resolution is ready to be put forward because it has the support of more than 100 members of Congress from both chambers and parties. The moment for congressional action is now, but these cosponsorships will end once the 118th Congress begins.
On the other hand, after first promising “consequences” for Saudi Arabia’s recent actions, the Biden administration has stressed again how important US-Saudi relations are. It’s possible that the kingdom and Mohammed bin Salman, its de facto ruler, will escape with a warning this time. This is because neither the Biden administration nor a large part of Congress wants to hurt ties with a trusted friend, especially one with so much power over the oil market around the world. Like the anger that lasted only a short time after Jamal Khashoggi was killed, the current anger may pass, leaving the basic principles of the US-Saudi strategy the same. The status quo benefits the defense industry, which donated over $27 million to Congress in just this election cycle alone. Saudi Arabia continues to be its top client.
Still, this old-fashioned plan leaves American voters and elections open to the House of Saud’s whims.
Present problem
Partner nations were forced to follow American rules while the United States was the most powerful nation in the world. However, the Saudis and much of the rest of the world have since changed their behavior to reflect this new, multipolar reality.
China, Turkey, and Iran are just a few of the manufacturers whose products are available for purchase under this new order. Asia and Africa have also surpassed North America and Europe as the world’s two biggest consumer markets, and China and Russia are becoming a bigger threat to the United States’ view of itself as the world’s superpower. Partners like Saudi Arabia will diversify their relationships by keeping close links with the US, Russia, and China while also stepping up their own independence and influence on the international scene.
However, for the time being, Saudi Arabia’s military is still reliant on US weapons and supplies. It would take years, if not decades, to switch suppliers, which could give Washington a lot of power over Saudi behavior, for example in Yemen. The UN-brokered ceasefire that was in place from April to October may have been influenced by the possibility of a War Powers Resolution because the Saudis wanted to escape the embarrassment of losing the ability to fly their own planes without the aid of US military contractors.
With a more realistic foreign policy, the U.S. should be able to adjust to the new way that power is being shared around the world. The US arms industry’s desire to profit from sales to oppressive regimes must be separated from US policy decisions about what will best advance peace and stability in important places like the Middle East as part of this reevaluation.
The Pentagon’s soaring budget reflects this impulse, an urge to spend our way back to supremacy, as opposed to the Beltway’s knee-jerk reaction to the end of American global dominance, which has generally been a desire to recreate the circumstances under which other countries acceded to US preferences. Even while the US military expenditure is already much higher than that of the following nine nations combined and significantly higher than it was during the height of the Cold War, nations like Saudi Arabia are acting more and more in opposition to US interests.
As part of a new, more realistic approach to foreign policy, the Biden administration would be smart to make sure that Saudi actions have real effects on oil prices and the war in Yemen. They could do this by cutting off all military support and arms exports until Riyadh stops being so destructive, and most importantly by stopping the US from helping Saudi Arabia fight in Yemen.
