Summary:
Ukraine’s most recent victories shouldn’t be oversold, current officials warn.
According to retired Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, a former national security adviser, the Ukrainian success in Lyman weakens Putin’s grasp on the eastern Donetsk region and “may develop into a cascading series of defeats for the Russians.”
According to McMaster, we could be on the verge of the Russian army in Ukraine collapsing. I think they must be close to breaking point.
Meanwhile, the advances made on Monday in Kherson signal a breakthrough following the small steps Ukrainian forces have taken since they started their southern counteroffensive in September. On Monday, Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defences. They pushed quickly down the western bank of the Dnipro River, retaking several villages and endangering the resupply routes for thousands of Russian soldiers.
According to Mick Mulroy, a retired CIA official and former deputy assistant secretary of Defense, it “shows the Ukrainians are capable of various operations.” It will also be necessary for subsequent operations, such as seizing control of the Crimean Peninsula’s water supply.
Current officials have issued a warning, however, saying that Kyiv’s most recent victories shouldn’t be oversold and that Russian forces are still in control of other places like the nearby Donetsk city of Bakhmut. Because Russian soldiers are fighting from trenches and shelters they have held for years, the battle in the Donbass will be tough.
Speaking under the condition of anonymity to discuss internal evaluations, a Defense Department source said, “There’s lots of heavy fighting ahead.”
Another U.S. source asked to remain anonymous said: “It’s important tactically, but they still have a long way to go.”
The looming possibility that the conflict could go nuclear hangs over the victories on the battlefield. Officials in the West are worried that Putin would use the annexations as a pretext for accusing Ukrainian forces of invading Russian territory, which would escalate the confrontation and possibly lead to the use of a tactical nuclear bomb.
However, according to John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, the United States has not yet seen any signals that would lead it to alter its strategic stance. He added, “We’re watching this as closely as we can.”
Analysis by: Advocacy Unified Network
