No Peace Without a Successful Military Campaign

The Ukrainian people undoubtedly want the weapons to stop firing the most. They are the casualties of this conflict. Russian missile and drone attacks have destroyed their hospitals, kindergartens, and schools. Homeownership has been lost to many.

They are the ones who stay in the shelters during an air raid and endure extended periods without running water, electricity, or heating. Although it is unknown how many soldiers have perished in battle, US estimates place the figure as high as 100,000.

However, the Ukrainian government wants to keep up the fight against the aggressor, Russia. It won’t talk directly with Moscow until Moscow admits to its war crimes in front of an international court and pulls all of its troops out of Ukraine, including the ones that were taken over by force. The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians agree with the administration on this.

Putin seeks complete dominance over Ukraine.

The Ukrainians know that Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t want to live in peace with an independent, sovereign Ukraine that can make its own decisions about the future. He wants it taken out.

According to him, the Ukraine of today is nothing more than a “colony with a puppet administration,” an “anti-Russia” that is antagonistic to the “genuine cultural, economic, and social interests of the people and the legitimate sovereignty of Ukraine.” Putin views Russia and Ukraine as “one people.”

Putin is determined to keep the Russian empire together, so an independent Ukraine that wants to open up to Europe like its neighbors in central Europe is intolerable. This is because it calls into question the foundations of the Russian empire.

People often say that Russia is only interested in the Donbas because it is part of its territory or because it wants to stop Ukraine from joining NATO. Both of these ideas are wrong. Moscow wants Ukraine to give up much more, including its freedom, identity, self-determination, and culture.

The destruction of Ukrainian culture, life, and statehood, as well as the killings, rapes, and kidnappings in the occupied lands, are clear signs of this.

There is no reason to suggest that Putin’s thinking has recently changed. On the other hand, Putin makes it apparent with each new step that he is unwilling to accept compromises. He frequently uses the word “negotiations,” as do other Russian government officials, but they have yet to offer a specific proposal.

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, kept calling for Ukraine to “demilitarize and denazify.” He kept calling parts of Ukraine that were illegally taken over by Russia “Russia’s new territory” until December 2022.

Putin hasn’t given up on his goal of having complete political control over the country. Instead, he’s just changed his plan and timeline. Since Russia was not successful on the battlefield, it is now bombing civilians and energy infrastructure in Ukraine to make the people less likely to fight back and wear down the country until Russia can start a new offensive in the spring.

Putin is also counting on the fact that western allies, which are also under pressure from their own people, will get tired and run out of guns, ammunition, and cash for Kyiv.

It would send a message to the Kremlin that its strategy is succeeding and that all it needs to do is wait until we lose patience if the West suddenly pushes for a ceasefire or peace discussions, maybe with the threat that it would otherwise stop supporting Ukraine.

So far, no one who supports an upcoming ceasefire has made a good case for how Putin can be persuaded to make a deal without more military pressure being put on him.

Avoiding having Russia impose peace

There has been no military solution to any problem for years, especially for us Germans. Unlike Vladimir Putin, who has discovered that he can quite successfully employ military power to further his political objectives in Georgia, Crimea, and Syria,

Therefore, in the current conflict, the only thing standing in the way of such a forced settlement is Ukraine’s military victories. In other words, there can’t be any chance of serious diplomacy until Russia is stopped and pushed back with force. To demonstrate to Putin that even a new military operation in the spring has little prospect of success and that this won’t change over time, Ukraine must be able to hold its own against the Russian invasion.

It is in the West’s best interest that Putin’s war of aggression does not result in any gains for him. His goals pose a threat to all of Europe. If he uses force and nuclear blackmail to take over parts of another country again, he opens the door for it to happen again, either by Russia or another country.

In the treaty documents from December 2021, Russia said it wanted a complete reorganization of the security order in Europe. This is important for peace and prosperity, especially in Germany.

So, it makes sense that Germany, the United States, and France have also decided to send armored personnel carriers and reconnaissance vehicles to Ukraine. It emphasizes that Ukraine won’t be forced into a bad deal with Russia by the great military powers of the West.

Of course, while providing military support, the risk of escalation must always be considered. But the West’s actions after the missile strikes, especially on the border between Poland and Ukraine, have shown that it knows this, reacts carefully, and can handle risk.

Real talks won’t start again until both Russia and Ukraine agree that a ceasefire is better than keeping fighting. If Europe doesn’t have a “hot autumn” and “winter of anger,” if western democracies keep supporting Ukraine, and if a new Russian offensive fails, the cards might be shuffled after spring.

It’s a given that any talks and concessions will be based on how the parties’ power balances turn out. Therefore, our objective must be to prepare Ukraine as much as we can for this moment in time and to work with Kiev to get ready for when the diplomatic window opens.