Summary:
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President Joe Biden’s administration is “concerned” about the significant document leak, according to a senior administration source who requested anonymity to speak about a sensitive intelligence topic.
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Moscow finds little value in the documents because they only provide a snapshot of the battle and are at least five weeks old.
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However, the second senior source noted that they might enable Russian intelligence strategists in determining the anticipated burn rate for Ukrainian supplies.
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According to the Pentagon, the Department of Defense is looking into the leak, which was first reported by the New York Times.
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Documents pertaining to Ukraine that are dated in February and March and are marked “SECRET” reveal American and NATO plans for supplying and training Ukrainian forces in preparation for a springtime counteroffensive.
The information that spread in early March was posted on the secure messaging platform Discord. They appear to be images of printouts from presentation decks that have been folded and then re-smoothed. Since then, they have been shared on Twitter and Telegram, among other social media platforms.
Who received the records first, who leaked them, and how much they were changed are all unknown. It’s also likely that there is an even older version.
President Joe Biden’s administration is “concerned” about the significant document leak, according to a senior administration source who requested anonymity to speak about a sensitive intelligence topic. The officer went on to say that the modification of the documents suggested that this might be a Russian disinformation campaign. “Russia has a history of faking news to spread false information.” The representative did not say when the government first learned of the leak.
There are differences between the documents distributed this month and those posted in March, indicating that the previous batch may be the original versions, or at least very near copies of them.
The leak comes as Ukraine is getting ready to launch its spring offensive and is one of the most publicised breaches of military intelligence since the Russian invasion in 2022. According to Mick Mulroy, a former DoD official and CIA officer, the records “represent a significant breach in security, which could compromise U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine.”
According to a second senior administration source who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject, the photos that surfaced online earlier this week depict slides that were created by the Joint Staff but that have been significantly altered to show erroneous information.
POLITICO discovered that at least one section had been altered, the death counts, after comparing the collection of documents that were shared on Discord with those that surfaced in April on platforms like Telegram, Twitter, and 4chan. In the updated version, there are noticeably more Ukrainian fatalities.
Both the March and April editions, though, have errors. The documents don’t all have dates on them. One of them had a date as recent as March 23, or nearly 20 days after they were posted on Discord. Other pages lack security markings and include parts that are filled with blank space.
Moscow finds little value in the documents because they only provide a snapshot of the battle and are at least five weeks old. However, the second senior source noted that they might enable Russian intelligence strategists in determining the anticipated burn rate for Ukrainian supplies.
According to the Pentagon, the Department of Defense is looking into the leak, which was first reported by the New York Times.
DoD spokesperson Sabrina Singh stated, “We are aware of the reports of social media posts, and the department is evaluating the matter. Both the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
Capitol Hill’s initial response has been furious. As a member of the House Armed Services Committee and a close ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) declared, “I’d fire anyone who leaks without authorization when they’re identified.”
Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, said, “I’m troubled by the potential leak and possible misinformation related to the documents.” I’m eager to see what actions the Department of Defense is taking to look into and correct any wrongdoing.
The March batch also includes pages with information on China, Jordan, Palestine, and other nations.
Documents pertaining to Ukraine that are dated in February and March and are marked “SECRET” reveal American and NATO plans for supplying and training Ukrainian forces in preparation for a springtime counteroffensive.
One slide outlines specific plans for the materiel that Western nations will deploy to Ukraine this spring, including the quantity of tanks and armoured vehicles that each country is providing and the anticipated arrival date. Additionally, it displays the state of the various NATO nations’ training initiatives.
One paper lists the Western gear Ukrainian brigades will get and the dates of their training. If that information is accurate, it might give Moscow important knowledge about new tools joining the fray this spring and summer. Additionally, it offers an intriguing glimpse into the diverse array of tools that the increasingly armed Ukrainian army presently employs.
For instance, the 82nd brigade appears to be a formidable force in armour. According to the documents, it will have roughly 150 armoured infantry carriers, including 90 American Stryker vehicles, 40 German Marders, 24 American M113 infantry carriers, and 14 British Challenger tanks, providing the force a potent punch. While the equipment is still being delivered, the unit is currently undergoing training.
Similar to this, the 33rd brigade will have 90 MRAP troop carriers produced in America along with 32 Leopard tanks from Germany, Canada, and Poland. According to the records, all of the cars were planned to come for training in March and April.
Another slide displays the Joint Staff’s daily conflict update, which includes the planned operations of American forces in the region, including the aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush and six submarines, the locations of which are infrequently, if at all, made public.
Others, with the designation “TOP SECRET,” display the U.S. military’s analysis of Russian and Ukrainian force movements in significant battlegrounds, such as Bakhmut, Kharkiv, and the Donetsk on March 1.
The February combat reports, which are shown in both the March and April tranches, include a claim that “agents” of Ukraine assaulted a Russian aircraft based in Belarus. Prior to now, the Ukrainian government has refuted those allegations. Requests for comment on the incident from a representative of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office went unanswered.
