Summary:
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This weekend, tens of thousands of people will fly to an Egyptian vacation spot on the Red Sea to combat climate change.
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If progress on loss and damage is not made, Egypt has warned of a “crisis of trust”; Mr. Guterres has called it the “litmus test” of the summit.
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In the meantime, any tensions in Egypt will get worse as relations between the US and China get worse.
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As part of a larger plan, supported by many African countries, to let low-income countries use their fossil fuel deposits, the Egyptians want to call natural gas a “transition” fuel.
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However, Greta Thunberg is on the list of people who will not go.
This weekend, tens of thousands of people will fly to an Egyptian vacation spot on the Red Sea to combat climate change.
The world’s best chance of making progress on the climate crisis is thought to be at the most recent UN climate meeting, known as COP27.
Progress is unquestionably required.
The UN issued a warning last week that the worldwide effort to reduce emissions is “woefully insufficient” and that the world is headed for “catastrophe.”
But it looks like the summit in Sharm El-Sheikh will be contentious.
Climate change funding
The Egyptian hosts have set a challenging goal for themselves.
Last year, at the UN climate summit in Glasgow, many promises were made about reducing emissions, getting money, getting to net zero, protecting forests, etc.
According to Egypt, the conference would focus on carrying out these commitments.
That means it will all come down to money, explicitly persuading affluent nations to fulfill their commitments to provide funding to assist underdeveloped countries in combating climate change.
Expect the primary lines of conflict to be between the north and the south, between wealthy and impoverished countries.
When we met last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned me, “Don’t underestimate how unhappy poor nations are.”
He says they think high-income countries have broken the historic agreement made at Paris’s 2015 UN climate conference.
Paris was a turning point because it was there that developing countries first realized that the worst effects of climate change could only be lessened by cutting their carbon emissions. They have previously maintained that they are not to blame for the climate problem and should not contribute to its solution.
The affluent nations agreed to contribute toward funding their efforts in exchange.
The issue is that it hasn’t kept its end of the bargain.
The $100 billion (£89 billion) a year that affluent countries pledged in 2009 to assist the developing world in reducing emissions and adapting to our changing climate is at the top of Egypt’s “must-do” list.
It will finally be available in full next year, three years after it was intended to be delivered in 2020.
Pakistan says that the developed world needs to agree on a way to pay for the damage and losses that climate change is already causing in developing countries, such as the floods that happened earlier this year.
As the leader of a large UN group of 134 developing countries, including China, it gives the talks a lot of weight.
This week, the BBC quoted Pakistan’s climate minister, Sherry Rehman, as saying, “I don’t think it is an unrealistic ask.” “Just look at how much money is used to finance wars,” she remarked.
The odds are against us. If progress on loss and damage is not made, Egypt has warned of a “crisis of trust”; Mr. Guterres has called it the “litmus test” of the summit.
However, anticipate a rebuff from developed nations.
Even though the US and Europe agree that the issue needs to be discussed formally, neither side is likely to put up any money.
They fear that as the effects of climate change worsen in the coming years, the expenses will skyrocket into the trillions of dollars.
As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rising interest rates, and skyrocketing food and energy prices, many industrialized nations are now concentrating on their economic problems.
In the meantime, any tensions in Egypt will get worse as relations between the US and China get worse.
The two superpowers have always been very important in helping to negotiate concessions quietly.
However, China changed its position after Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in August and demanded that climate negotiations be kept separate from other concerns.
However, there will be a lot of discussion about alternative methods of dealing with loss and damage.
Egypt aims to improve weather and climate forecasting so that developing nations are better equipped to deal with extreme weather.
A German idea for an insurance-based “Global Shield” program to assist underdeveloped nations in recovering more quickly from climatic disasters has received a lot of interest.
Progress with debt relief could also be apparent. Rising borrowing costs make it more difficult for developing nations to pay off their massive debts, leaving them with less money to address climate change and its effects.
Additionally, there will be a concentrated effort to speed up emissions reductions. According to John Kerry, the US’s climate envoy, the US continues to prioritize this issue.
However, only 24 of the 193 countries amended their goals for reducing carbon emissions this year, putting the world on course for 2.7°C temperature increases.
When Mr. Kerry talks about “several countries,” he means that many developing countries now make a lot of CO2. India is currently the third-largest emitter in the world, behind China.
There will, however, be some opposition from some emerging nations.
As part of a larger plan, supported by many African countries, to let low-income countries use their fossil fuel deposits, the Egyptians want to call natural gas a “transition” fuel.
This week, Rishi Sunak, the prime minister of the United Kingdom, declared that he would now join more than 100 other international leaders, including President Biden, in starting the negotiations.
However, Greta Thunberg is on the list of people who will not go.
She said the COP conferences “promote incremental progress,” and she called the global summit “greenwashing” last week.
It is a well-known complaint. Although the UN process is lengthy, complicated, and far from ideal, Sherry Rehman rightly points out that it is all we have.
The negotiations are being done by the thousands of diplomats and government workers who are flying into Sharm El-Sheikh right now.
They will be preparing themselves for some challenging conversations.
They should swim over the coral reefs close to the coast to be reminded of what is at risk.
According to scientists, the world’s reefs are under attack from rising ocean temperatures, with 14% of them lost just in the ten years leading up to 2018.
The good news is that local experts have found that Egyptian reefs seem to be particularly resistant to maritime warmth.
If progress is to be made during the meeting, the negotiators must call upon similar fortitude reserves.
Analysis by: Advocacy Unified Network
