Summary:
- Diplomats have urged Putin’s regional allies and adversaries to pressure him to avoid using nuclear weapons.
- Biden administration attempts to persuade the UN to take action against Russia. U.S. officials think relying on Xi Jinping, and Modi is one of the most effective ways to change Putin’s mind.
- Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons if it feels threatened by US/NATO incursion into Ukraine.
- The United States thinks that Putin is aware of his stress at home.
- The indications of unrest and protest brought on by the recent call-up of military reservists will only exacerbate that.
- World leaders are responsible for ” reinforcing Biden’s admonition against Putin’s flirtations”.
- A UN resolution from 1950 would be one way to get over the Security Council’s impasse.
- If Russia used nuclear weapons, the world body would also have the choice to react strongly.
- South Asia, Latin America, and Africa would become hostile toward Russia if they were exposed to nuclear weapons.
They ought to do it. I certainly hope so,” continued the official, who, like the others interviewed for this piece, wished to remain anonymous to disclose private discussions.
According to a senior State Department official, American diplomats have urged Putin’s regional allies and adversaries to pressure him to avoid using nuclear weapons.
The official said, without mentioning whether the United States was leaning on China and India, “We had made the point in several conversations with countries in the Indo-Pacific region — allies, partners, or otherwise — of the importance of speaking with one voice against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
“Every nation must raise its voice.”
Meanwhile, the Biden administration attempts to persuade the UN to take action against Russia. According to U.S. officials, one option would be to propose a resolution outside of the UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto, that would denounce Moscow’s plans to annex significant portions of eastern Ukraine and demand that it evacuate all of its soldiers.
According to officials, unknown language in the UN charter may be employed, as was the case after the North Korean attack on South Korea in 1950. Both Security Council members with veto power, China and Russia, supported North Korea’s aggression.
However, U.S. officials think that relying on Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, two world leaders who are supposed to have significant influence over Putin, is one of the most effective ways to change his mind. This is according to current and former officials in the U.S. and Europe.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, China has continued its military cooperation with Moscow without criticizing its friend in the public sphere. Due to the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, China has also grown to be an even larger market for Russian goods, particularly energy supplies.
However, as was predicted, it has not inked any significant business agreements with Moscow since the invasion. And during a gathering of heads of state for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan this month, Putin himself alluded to rising worries from Beijing on Russia’s invasion.
“We appreciate our Chinese allies’ balanced stance on the Ukrainian problem,” Putin stated. “We appreciate your inquiries and worries on this matter.”
Mainly Xi is considered a potentially strong voice in preventing the crisis from going further.
“You realize Putin and Xi have this unrestricted friendship?
“Noting the two leaders’ cordial relationships in recent years, Rose Gottemoeller, a former deputy secretary general of NATO who has negotiated with Putin, stated. He ought to be paying attention to his pal right now.
That also applies to Modi, who expressed his public unhappiness at Putin’s conduct in Ukraine during the meeting in Uzbekistan. Modi is a closer democratic friend to Washington than his Chinese counterpart.
And the foreign minister of India, S. Jaishankar, expressed fresh worry over the state of affairs in Ukraine, highlighting the potential use of nuclear weapons.
At the UN, he declared, “The direction of the Ukraine war is a cause of great worry for the whole international community.” “The prospect for the future is much more unsettling. The nuclear issue is especially concerning.
Keeping in regular contact with American and foreign diplomats, Stanford University professor Gottemoeller stated, “I believe that they are also conveying deterrent messages to Putin.”
She continued, “I hope that will be beneficial.
Regarding any initiatives to persuade China or India to turn more heavily toward Russia, the White House and State Department declined to comment.
A background scene
On Wednesday, informal discussions grew more heated as several American, European, and Russian arms control specialists and former government officials met privately to discuss building a robust international front.
Speaking of unofficial discussions carried out with the knowledge of delegates’ foreign ministries, Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, noted that “there continue to be numerous Track II contacts.”
In recent days, Putin and other senior Russian officials have made new, bellicose threats that Russia would contemplate deploying nuclear weapons if it felt threatened by what it believes is an attempt by the US and NATO to use Ukraine as a springboard for an attack on it.
That led the Biden administration to warn that if Moscow crossed the nuclear threshold, there would be “catastrophic consequences.”
Although officials from the White House and Defense Department reiterated this week that there is no indication that Russia has taken any moves that would suggest it intends to deploy nuclear weapons, the White House is nonetheless vigilant regarding Putin’s nuclear threats.
According to the individuals, U.S. intelligence does not believe that stance will alter after the release of the referendum results on Friday.
The United States thinks that Putin is aware of his stress at home and that his war effort is waning. The indications of unrest and protest brought on by the recent week’s call-up of military reservists will only exacerbate that, making it impossible for Putin to hide the war’s failings from the Russian people.
As a result, according to Kimball, who took part in the Wednesday private conversation between Western and Russian nuclear specialists, there is “uniform alarm about the unprecedented scope of the nuclear threat we’re confronting.” “We’re attempting to determine how to react personally and publicly.”
He said that he sees a rising responsibility on the part of world leaders to “reinforce Biden’s admonition against Putin’s flirtations with the deployment of nuclear weapons.”
They should emphasize that if Putin violates the 77-year ban on nuclear weapons, everyone loses, including Russia.
Status of pariah
By figuring out ways to pass a proposed resolution on Ukraine through the international body without triggering a Russian veto at the U.N., the Biden administration is also attempting to galvanise the UN to exert new diplomatic pressure on Putin. Council of Security.
After receiving a briefing on the situation in Ukraine on Tuesday, American ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield stated, “If Russia uses its veto to insulate itself from accountability, we will then look to the UN General Assembly to deliver a clear message to Moscow.”
People who know the situation stated that a “Uniting for Peace” resolution from 1950 would be one way to get over the Security Council’s impasse.
According to Kimball, if Russia used nuclear weapons, the world body would also have the choice to react strongly, including by adopting coordinated action to address the harm.
The fact that a Russian nuclear assault in Ukraine would disprove one of Putin’s main talking points—that the United States is the only country to use atomic weapons in a conflict—may be one of the strongest deterrents to preventing a detonation in the first place.
Another American official mentioned how using nuclear bombs would make one a pariah.
The speaker said that while “Russia has intermittently maintained they would never deploy a nuclear weapon throughout the battle,” they have also “on occasion made nuclear threats on and off throughout the conflict.”
The official also mentioned that in January, Putin joined the leaders of the United States, Great Britain, France, and China in signing a statement that said nuclear wars should never be waged and are impossible to win.
Gottemoeller believes that if Russia used nuclear weapons, South Asia, Latin America, and Africa — which have had historical economic and political links to Moscow — would become hostile toward Russia.
She added, “The Russians, Putin himself, and his cronies have been very successful in keeping the Global South on his side and going out and saying, ‘Look at what the Americans are doing and their colonial partners like the U.K.'”
She continued, “I believe that violating the nuclear taboo will lose them the Global South. They would experience a great deal more isolation than they have during this crisis; Putin requires his Chinese and Indian clientele.”
Better ties between Washington and Beijing would “make a tremendous difference,” according to Graham Allison, a former top Pentagon official and longtime government adviser on nuclear strategy, but “even in the absence of that, I think there’s an opportunity.”
Allison further remarked, “If I were working on it. “I would be pursuing that angle with all of my might.”
Analysis by: Advocacy Unified Network
