Uncertainty is expanding in new directions. Throughout the world, lives are in a state of flux. We must unlock people’s creative and cooperative capabilities to transform uncertainty into opportunities. Intensify our efforts to promote human development. The 2021–22 Human Development Report, titled “Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping Our Future in a Transforming World,” comes to that conclusion.

Numerous factors are upsetting people’s lives. The global human development index (HDI) changed direction for two years in a row for the first time. In the 2020–2021 period, more than nine out of ten nations had a reduction in their HDI values, far outpacing any other period since the HDI was initially published (Figure 1).

Figure 1 shows the percentage of nations with declining Human Development Index values

While the majority of high-income countries were able to recover in 2021, the majority of low- and middle-income countries continued to face declines in 2018.

Data at the individual level reveals that the forces at play go much beyond COVID-19 or changes in the HDI, which, despite being a potent indicator, only captures a portion of human growth. More than six in seven individuals worldwide reported feeling uneasy, according to the UNDP’s 2022 Special Report on Human Security. Even in nations with the highest HDI scores, anxiety levels are rising. It is a trend that has been developing for at least ten years, along with gains in the HDI and other common welfare indicators. Similarly, across all educational levels, reported stress levels—the sensation of being overtaken by what the outside world is throwing at us—have risen.

What is happening? How does the broad perspective of human development assist us in comprehending and addressing this apparent dichotomy of advancement and insecurity?

According to the 2021–22 Human Development Report, a new “uncertainty complex” (Figure 2) that has never existed in human history is evolving. Although uncertainty is nothing new, it is now manifesting in dangerous new ways. It is made up of three interacting and volatile strands:

The Anthropocene’s destabilising planetary pressures (such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and new diseases like COVID-19) are exacerbated by inequality between those who cause planetary forces and those who suffer their effects (see the 2019 Human Development Report on Inequalities and the 2020 Human Development Report on the Anthropocene); the pursuit of significant societal changes to relieve those pressures while technological innovation continues to advance.

Figure 2. A fresh set of uncertainty is developing.

Together, instability and uncertainty are tearing down societal structures. More insecure people have lower trust in others. Less than 30% of individuals worldwide—the lowest recorded percentage—believe that most people can be trusted, which is not surprising given the rise in global insecurity. Extreme political beliefs are likewise more likely to be held by less secure people (Figure 3). This can explain the increase in political polarisation observed over the past ten years in many nations, at least partly (Figure 4).

Figure 3 shows increasing political polarization.

Source: 2021-22 Human Development Report

Figure 4. Insecurity can drive people to hold more extreme preferences

Source: Human Development Report Office based on World Values Survey, waves 6 and 7. See Harper and others (2022).

Many people feel resentful and cut off from their political institutions. Democratic standards and practices are regressing, which is the opposite of what happened ten years ago despite widespread support for democracy worldwide. At their worst, polarisation and widening gaps result in violent conflict. Warfare is on the rise. Over 1.2 billion individuals were impacted by violent disputes even before the Ukraine War, with about half living outside of fragile situations.

Action to reduce human stresses on the planet may be delayed by the debilitating combination of uncertainty and polarization. Our inaction might be the most significant annoyance in this day and age. What should one do in this situation?

We need to change the way we think about uncertainty. We are all aware of the potential severity of the harm caused by superstorms, drought, related financial crises, and pandemics. They might very well get worse in ways we can’t yet predict. However, if all we see as a threat is uncertainty, we have already lost the battle. We can’t afford to be glib or fatalistic.

Think about the COVID-19 epidemic with all of its profound, illogical inconsistencies. It provided new frames of reference for what is feasible:

Technologically, groundbreaking vaccines saved more than 20 million lives last year alone and showed promise for preventing and treating many other diseases; economically, unprecedented monetary interventions and dramatic fiscal expansion, especially in social protection, have dwarfed actions taken during the global financial crisis; socially, fundamental shifts in behaviours, including voluntary social isolation and self-distancing; and finally, socially, voluntary social isolation and self-distancing have become more common.

As much as technology is both a threat and an opportunity for disruption, artificial intelligence (AI) is both. It has a more significant potential to increase labour demand than to automate it. It is possible to create new tasks, jobs, and industries. Keep in mind that the majority of occupations were made partly due to new technology: In the United States, almost 60% of people work in professions that did not exist in 1940.

However, we do not have the luxury of waiting for the long term. In particular, if labour-replacing incentives dominate AI’s development, the negative displacement implications are too significant, too likely, and happening too quickly. Policies should encourage AI to complement human capabilities rather than attempt to supplant them. That would free up and begin to frontload its capacity for improvement.

Therefore, we must implement laws that give individuals a sense of security and increased control over their lives. Without it, people will dread rather than embrace the environment of unexpected uncertainty. Essentially, we must work to sever the chains connecting ambiguity and insecurity.

Where do we start?

Investment, insurance, and innovation policies will have a significant impact:

• The investment will reduce planetary pressures and prepare countries to better withstand global shocks, from pandemic readiness to renewable energy to prepare for extreme natural catastrophes.
• Insurance protects everyone from the unforeseen events of an uncertain world. That was accomplished while highlighting how little social insurance coverage there was before the epidemic and how much work still has to be done. Investments in universally accessible essential services like healthcare and education also provide a function for insurance. Insurance in a well-regulated market is also necessary.
• Innovation in all forms—technological, economic, and cultural—will be essential to address unforeseen and unknowable difficulties. Even while innovation involves the entire society, the government is critical: providing incentives for inclusive innovation and actively participating throughout.

Because the social context serves as the testing ground for new policies, social norms must also change. Education may broaden people’s viewpoints by fostering inclusivity in schools as well as via the use of courses. An essential mechanism for social change is the social acceptance of everyone. In all of its manifestations, media plays a significant role here.

The problem extends beyond programme participants or target audiences to include decision-makers. For instance, the inclusion of more women in political positions changes the focus of public policy and raises the aspirations of other women and girls. Societal movements play significant roles in advancing human rights and transforming social norms and narratives that substantially impact how people behave, from their consumer habits to how they support political leaders.

Together, these extend human progress, moving away from the HDI’s emphasis on well-being successes and toward Amartya Sen’s assertions of increasing agency and freedoms. The advancement of humanity then serves as both a goal and a tool for handling uncertainty. It is up to us where we go from here.

Analysis by: Advocacy Unified Network