The official said China’s nuclear expansion during the past several years is a “dramatic escalation” from the mid-2000s, even if the most recent report does not show an increase from the pace of growth from the previous year.

The authority declared that this trend was accelerating. “We see that with the expansion of the silo fields, the development of a nuclear triad, and what they’re doing with their sea bases, air components, silos, and mobile ground troops,” the author said.

Beijing’s arsenal is still far smaller than those of Russia and the United States, which control 90% of the nuclear weapons in the world. According to SIPRI, Russia had the most nuclear weapons as of January, with 5,977, closely followed by the United States, with 5,428.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty limits Washington’s and Moscow’s nuclear arsenals. The two countries agreed to keep the treaty in place for another five years, until 2021. Without providing a justification, Russia on Monday postponed scheduled arms control negotiations with the United States that were to take place this week in Cairo.

China, on the other hand, has chosen not to join the talks. It says that the United States and Russia, the world’s two most considerable nuclear powers, should take the lead on arms control because their arsenals are much bigger than China’s. But the senior DoD source added that Beijing’s growth “raises some doubts about their motive.”

The person said that the change “does raise questions about whether they are moving away” from their stated goal of having “the fewest nuclear weapons necessary for the PRC’s national defence.”

More than the rest of the world, China’s rocket forces launched around 135 ballistic missiles in 2021 for testing and training. China also developed three solid-fuel IBMS silo fields in the same year, which house at least 300 new silos.

The paper says China is also improving its space and counter-space capabilities and working on many technologies, such as kinetic-kill missiles, ground-based lasers, and space robots in orbit.

In a regional military conflict, the PLA “views space activities as a method to prevent and counter third-party intervention,” according to the paper. Also, PRC defence schools say that attacks meant to “blind and deafen the enemy” could target satellites for surveillance, communication, navigation, and early warning.

After House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial trip to the island this summer, the Department of Defense (DoD) does not have a new assessment of when China might invade Taiwan. According to officials, the DoD thinks China will be able to invade Taiwan by 2027.

After the speaker’s visit, the DoD did note Beijing’s increasing “provocative and destabilizing actions in and around Taiwan,” the official said. There were more flights into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone and more crossings of the centre line of the Taiwan Strait. Some drills looked like an invasion.

The official noted that this action “appears to be aimed to scare or wear down Taiwan,” adding that “what we do see is the PRC creating a new normal level of military operations.”

We are paying a lot of attention to this level of more threatening and coercive behaviour, even though I still don’t see any immediate signs of an invasion.

According to a readout of one of the talks POLITICO was able to get, U.S. officials have discussed China’s nuclear capabilities with NATO partners, including in a series of meetings in October.

In one of the sessions, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg talked about China’s growing nuclear arsenal. He said that Russia and China would soon face off as “near-peer” nuclear competitors for the first time in history.

Stoltenberg says that China is adding more atomic bombs to its military arsenal and changing how it uses nuclear weapons to keep other countries from getting them. At the summit, Canada, the UK, the Netherlands, and other NATO allies pointed out that Beijing’s nuclear capabilities were a problem for the alliance. Canadian representatives emphasized the significance of including Beijing in upcoming arms talks.