The lifeblood of democratic decision-making, freedoms of expression and association, has been particularly heavily damaged, with losses in more than 80% of the countries examined since 2015. During this time, perceptions of the legitimacy, honesty, and openness of electoral processes, as well as the transfer of political power by the law, also declined in two-thirds of the countries polled. Media, minorities, and dissidents are targets in the heated fight to secure government control, which is becoming more violent by the year. When power is unjustly or forcefully seized, as in Sudan, Haiti, and Myanmar, the rule of law suffers severe harm, and civil war intensifies; however, when elections are free and fair, as in Honduras and, slowly and with some difficulty, the United States, the rule of law begins to recover.

Europe and its neighbours are still making progress

Europe, home to nine of this year’s top 10 rule of law performances, stands out as a significant exception to these unfavourable global trends. The region, which has a successful history, is also improving faster than anywhere else, accounting for more than half of the top 25 worldwide improvers on the index since 2015. Building a “whole and free” Europe based on the rule of law, human rights, and democracy is moving forward rapidly. This continent has received high marks for its judicial integrity, open government, and fair regulatory enforcement. Estonia and Lithuania, two more recent members of the European Union (EU), continue to make progress; Romania and Bulgaria, though still underperforming, also made progress this year. Additionally, two of the top five worldwide improvers in 2022 were EU accession hopefuls Moldova and Kosovo, giving them more momentum toward joining the EU, which demands rigorous adherence to the rule of law standards.

Despite recovering more quickly than other regions from the pandemic’s effects on the rule of law, Europe continues to see significant long-term reductions in areas including discrimination, freedom of assembly, and legal changes in power. Famous cases like Poland and Hungary, where scores on the rule of law have decreased by about 10% since 2015, provide evidence for why EU officials are now setting a limit. Victor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, is currently being forced to comply with Brussels’ enforcement of its members’ treaty responsibilities to demand course adjustments or pay a significant fine. All EU neighbours of Bosnia, Turkey, and Georgia also show significant multi-year reductions.

More countries on its eastern side are now benefiting from the gradual advancement in the rule of law procedures seen throughout the rest of Europe. This includes multiple Belarusian neighbours and a revanchist Russia, two nations that have seen some of the most significant declines since 2015. Reform-minded governments that have improved their rule of law performance since 2015 include those in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. In contrast, Russia and Belarus have continued to deteriorate. Unsurprisingly, Ukraine’s ranking dropped in 2022 after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces invaded the nation. Still, over time, it has shown some progress in fundamental rights, law and order, and the execution of regulations. Its chances of entering the EU soon will depend on its capacity to repel Russian forces and return to the path of democratisation, particularly the struggle against ingrained corruption.

China and India: Competing for last place?

Despite having quite different political structures, the two other growing countries also have some troubling similarities regarding the rule of law. Regarding their relative decreases in the practice of law ratings since 2015, China and India are almost locked at -1.6% and -1.7%, respectively, with China coming in at 95 out of 140 states on the index and India at 77. The successful consolidation of the Communist Party leadership in China this month by President Xi Jinping, who now has fewer checks on his authority, portends even less rule-of-law adherence in the future. Another sign that China is uniting against any internal challenges to its one-party rule is Beijing’s strong-arm campaign against peaceful protestors and the media in Hong Kong, which has slid five years in a row on its tradition of law score. This probably enhances the likelihood of Taiwan acting more aggressively toward its perceived rivals and of Taiwan becoming more democratic.

India, the largest democracy in the world, has a once-encouraging trajectory toward more transparent governance and active public discourse, but that has since changed. The performance of India’s rule of law has significantly deteriorated in criminal justice (-17.7%), fundamental rights (-12.8%), and checks and balances (-6.3%) since Prime Minister Narendra Modi established his hold on power. Despite some improvements in administrative due process, civil justice accessibility, and legislative branch corruption, the erosion was primarily caused by declining scores on the honesty of police and military officials, freedoms of religion and expression (mainly targeted against Muslim minorities and around disputed claims in Kashmir), and non-discrimination. However, New Delhi has generally passed on these worrying developments since it is increasingly aligning with its Indo-Pacific partners as a security check against China’s ambitions.

After Trump, the US gradually rebalances

Under the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump, the United States—once a self-declared global leader in upholding the rule of law—fell five years in a row. It regained footing in 2022 and had gains across all eight index-measured parameters. However, compared to 2015, it still falls short on fundamental tenets like checks and balances, holding officials accountable for their actions, and orderly handovers of power. It’s an embarrassingly low rating (121 and 106, respectively) for discrimination in the civil and criminal justice systems. As evidenced by his tenacious defence of Ukraine, his new national security plan that concentrates on the threat posed by a menacing and anti-democratic China, and his Summit for Democracy initiative, U.S. President Joe Biden has done his best to restore some of Washington’s credibility as a leading democracy, both at home and abroad. To put the United States on a better trajectory for the future, however, much more effort must be made by all parties involved.

On its southern border, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti are among the ten least stable nations in the world. As a result, millions of people migrated to the United States and the surrounding area. Washington must also deal with this deteriorating security and legal situation. Brazil has deteriorated for five years in a row, primarily under the administration of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. And nations like Bolivia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Colombia continue to do poorly in crucial aspects of governance like the management of corruption, criminal justice, and law and order.

In conclusion, global tendencies toward and away from rights-based, rule-based governance are more closely aligned with the worldwide fault lines of escalating geopolitical struggle. The multipolar world at our doorstep is chaotic, unstable, and unsafe, and it raises existential concerns about how power is distributed and human dignity is upheld. The United States, Europe, and its other like-minded friends will need clever ways to support their performance as free and just societies and to actively defend those ideals overseas to avert the next major titanic clash.

Analysis by: Advocacy Unified Network